Now for the Big 6 (Thats Best Picture, Director, and the 4 Acting Categories)
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win-- Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Will Win-- Melissa Leo, The Fighter
I am not in the least bit upset that Melissa Leo is finally getting her due. And this Oscar isn't undeserved by any stretch of the imagination-- she is fantastic playing the mother of Mickey Ward and Dicky Eklund. Completely believable as the strong matriarch of the Lowell family. That said, I think Steinfeld kept True Grit moving. Her part was strong-willed and hard-headed, and outwit just about everybody she butted heads with. Great performance by a young talent. Amy Adams was awesome and it was impressive to see her flip the switch from good-girl to tough-girl. I didn't see Animal Kingdom so I can't have an opinion on Jacki Weaver. And if Helena Bonham-Carter actually wins, I will be super pissed. She was okay at best. Her character didn't display as much depth as the other nominees, and her performance simply didn't impress me. Sorry...
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win-- Christian Bale/Geoffrey Rush, The Fighter/The King's Speech
Will Win-- Christian Bale, The Fighter
This is usually my favorite category of the night and I don't really know why. There's something intriguing about supporting characters. You don't follow them as intently as the lead and their development usually isn't as complete either-- but their incredibly interesting (see recent winners Bardem from No Country, Ledger from Dark Knight and Waltz from Basterds).
And I'm not cheating with my should win-- The Academy has had a few ties before, and it should happen again this year. Both Rush and Bale completely absorb their characters (both based on real people) and sell them masterfully. Bale transforms himself into drugged out Dicky Eklund, completely different from that bulky Batman he was a mere summer ago. Rush's performance is more soft spoken, but no less masterful. Both are the true highlights of their films. Mark Ruffalo is a hilarious sperm-donor/homewrecker in The Kids Are All Right. Jeremy Renner is brutal as Ben Affleck's best friend in The Town. And John Hawkes is the mysterious uncle in Winter's Bone, a character I was surprised I could was rooting for as the film went on.
Best Actress, Leading Role
Should Win-- Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Will Win--
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Just a tour de force performance by Natalie as Nina, the troubled/coming-of-age dancer. If you haven't seen it, can't really tell you a whole lot besides 1.) Go See It Now. 2.) Natalie's character evolves throughout the film, drives it forward in a way you can't take your eyes off her.
Annette Bening's gay mother was so annoying to me in The Kids Are All Right, but I guess that just illustrates how well she played the part. Kidman and William's performances were similar, both very well done as heartbroken/worn-down women. And Jennifer Lawrence gained a fan with her awesome work in Winter's Bone as a teenager struggling to care for her family, keep her home, and find her missing father. But bottom line- this award has been Portman's for a long time.
Best Actor, Leading Role
Should Win-- Colin Firth, King's Speech
Will Win-- Colin Firth, King's Speech
Like Portman, this has been Firth's trophy for a long time at this point. Unlike Portman, he's had far less competition. And while I don't believe Firth even gave the best performance inThe King's Speech, he gave the best lead performance (well, maybe Gosling did, but whatever). I had seen Jesse Eisenberg play "Mark Zuckerberg" before in a movie called The Education of Charlie Banks, so that didn't exactly blow me away. Franco was practically the only character in his film outside the rock, so I will give him credit for keeping that film going. Jeff Bridge's Rooster was entertaining, but hardly a role I would have considered a top 5 of the year. As for Bardem, haven't seen Biutiful, so I reserve judgement.
Best Director
Should Win-- Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Will Win-- David Fincher, The Social Network.
Black Swan was so complex, had so much to absorb, so much to overlook. For that, Aronofsky's my pick, though I expect Fincher to pull out the win for the film that captures our generation strikingly well.
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